Democratic primary candidate for mayor Zohran Mamdani at a rally on June 21.
Photo: Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis/Getty Images
An Emerson College–PIX 11 poll released Monday shows Queens assemblymember Zohran Mamdani surpassing former governor Andrew Cuomo for the first time in any major public poll a day before the Democratic primary.
In a ranked-choice simulation, Cuomo leads in the first round with 36 percent followed by Mamdani with 34 percent and Comptroller Brad Lander with 13 percent. The other candidates are in the single digits. Cuomo continues to lead until the eighth and final round of voting, where Mamdani overtakes him after Lander is eliminated, winning with 52 percent to Cuomo’s 48 percent. The survey was taken last week. An internal poll commissioned for City Councilmember Justin Brannan’s comptroller campaign earlier this month found Mamdani defeating Cuomo by a four-point margin among likely voters.
According to Emerson College, Mamdani has continued to expand his support, increasing his first-choice support from 22 percent in last month’s survey to 32 percent. By comparison, Cuomo gained one point from May to June, going from being 34 percent of voters’ first choice to 35 percent. The pollster found Mamdani leading among voters younger than 50 by a two-to-one margin while Cuomo leads among voters 50 years of age and older.
A recent Marist poll found Cuomo continuing to lead the crowded primary field and ultimately winning in the eighth and final round of voting by 55 percent to 45 percent but showed Mamdani closing the gap between them. However, that survey, unlike Emerson’s, was conducted prior to the race’s second debate and several key developments, including cross-endorsements by Mamdani and Lander as well as the comptroller’s arrest by ICE agents, which likely raised his profile.
In a statement, Cuomo’s campaign downplayed the poll’s findings. “This is an outlier: Every other credible poll in this election — including two released last week — has shown Governor Cuomo with a double-digit lead, which is exactly where this election will end tomorrow. Between now and then we will continue to fight for every vote like he will fight for every New Yorker as mayor,” a spokesperson told PIX 11.
But Mamdani touted the results, seeing them as a sign of his campaign’s momentum heading into Election Day. “We have gone from the margin of error to the margin of effort. On the day before the election, we stand on the verge of toppling a political dynasty and winning a city we can afford,” he said on social media.
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