We don’t know yet, but the first additional troops deployed to the region — the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit — should get to the Strait of Hormuz within days.
The next pressure point for the war, timingwise, had been Friday, when Trump’s five-day extended deadline for Iran to cut a deal with the U.S. was supposed to end. Then Trump extended the deadline by another ten days until the night of Monday, April 6.
If no deal materializes — as of now, one doesn’t seem likely — Trump may order escalatory attacks. It also possible that Trump declares and end to negotiations before then, or is once again using them as a ruse, as he did ahead of the U.S. air strikes during the 12-day war last year.
On Saturday, the Washington Post reported that the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations, according to U.S. officials:
Any potential ground operation would fall short of a full-scale invasion and could instead involve raids by a mixture of Special Operations forces and conventional infantry troops, said the officials. All spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss highly sensitive military plans that have been in development for weeks. …
Discussions within the administration over the past month have touched upon the possible seizure of Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub in the Persian Gulf, and raids into other coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz to find and destroy weapons that can target commercial and military shipping, officials said. One person said that the objectives under consideration would probably take “weeks, not months” to complete. Another put the potential timeline at “a couple of months.”
On Thursday, Axios reported that the Pentagon is “developing military options for a ‘final blow’ in Iran that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign, according to two U.S. officials and two sources with knowledge:
A dramatic military escalation will grow more likely if no progress is made in diplomatic talks and, in particular, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Some U.S. officials think a crushing show of force to conclude the fighting would create more leverage in peace talks or simply give Trump something to point to and declare victory.
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